A Serious Earthquake In The Drill Baby Drill Oilfields Of Texas

Originally published on Forbes.com on February 20, 2025

Pipeline failures, and the inability of the RRC restrictions to stop M5 earthquakes, are troubling as earthquakes up to M6 might be a significant threat to pipelines and population. 

The Facts Of The Earthquake     

A magnitude 5.0 earthquake struck near Toyah, Texas, a sparsely populated town 190 miles east from El Paso, on Friday, February 14, 2025 (Figure 1). The quake was felt all the way to Albuquerque. The depth of the quake was 6.6 km or 4.1 miles. In December 2023, the Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC), which regulates oil and gas production in that state, had shut down deep saltwater disposal wells in Reeves and Culberson counties due to seismic activity, but that didn’t prevent this M5 quake.

How Serious Is An M5 Earthquake

As a rule of thumb:

• M = 3 can be felt at the surface of the earth.
• M = 4 cups fall off shelves, cracks form in walls.
• M = 5 minor structural damage, chimneys fall.
• M = 6 serious structural damage, houses collapse.
• M = 7 people trapped under rubble, lives lost.
• M = 8 large-scale disaster.

Other Big Earthquakes In Texas

A list of major earthquakes near Texas with M5 or greater has been cataloged. The strongest recent earthquake of the past 10 years in Texas occurred on Nov 16, 2022 14:32 MT. It had a magnitude of 5.4 and struck 147 miles east of El Paso, at a depth of 4 mi. This quake occurred in the North Culberson seismic response area (SRA).

The table shows four M5 earthquakes that have occurred in the North Culberson SRA since 2020, including the recent one in February 2025. This is a heavily faulted area, as discussed previously.  The other two M5 quakes occurred near Midland (Figure 2).

Explaining The Earthquakes

The accepted explanation for the earthquakes is the disposal of wastewater after fracking a well and when producing water along with oil or gas. When drilling is intense (drill baby drill) as it was in Oklahoma in 2009-2016 and is now in the Permian basin of west Texas and New Mexico, injected volumes of wastewater become sufficient to induce earthquakes.

The wastewater builds up pressure which finds its way into a fault or pattern of faults and this can cause a fault to slip which induces an earthquake. In 2015, Oklahoma recorded almost 900 quakes greater than M3, six times as many as in California.

The biggest was the Pawnee Earthquake which was M5.8. The damage was superficial due perhaps to softer earth’s surface in that area. The whole story of Oklahoma’s earthquakes has been compiled with entertaining detail.

Regulators

The Permian basin has seen a rapid increase of induced earthquakes since the year 2000, caused by increased wastewater disposal as production wells proliferated. More than 20 deep injection wells exist in the Culberson and Reeves County at depths 11,000 – 16,000 ft (i.e. below the bottom of the Wolfcamp production zone). Deep is the magic word because deeper injection pushes wastewater closer to intense faulting which often occurs in the basements and can extend upwards.

The railroad Commission of Texas (RRC) are the regulators for Texas’ oil and gas industry. In the Northern Culberson-Reeves SRA (Figure 2), regulators have taken the following actions (my comments in caps):

December 9, 2022, Revised Response Plan

On November 16, 2022, a 5.4 magnitude earthquake occurred within the Northern-Culberson Reeves Seismic Response Area (NCR SRA). In response, RRC staff and disposal well operators within the SRA have taken additional actions to reduce seismicity within the NCR SRA more quickly, including expanding the SRA from 2,366 to 2,601 square miles to include more disposal wells and amending the response plan to further reduce injection volumes. Operators have committed to meeting the original deep disposal volume target of 298,000 bbls/day three months early and meeting a new target of 162,000 bbls/day by June 30, 2023. This represents a 68% drop in disposal volume compared to January 2022 before the plan went into effect. COMMENT: THESE ARE FAIRLY DRASTIC ACTIONS, BUT THEY FAILED TO PREVENT AN M5.2 EARTHQUAKE THAT OCCURRED IN THIS AREA JUST 12 MONTHS LATER.

December 19, 2023 Action

From November 8 through December 17, 2023, the TexNet Seismic Monitoring Program reported that seven (7) earthquakes occurred in northern Culberson and Reeves Counties with magnitudes (M) of 5.2, 3.6, 4.0, 3.6, 3.8, 3.7, and 3.9 (in order of occurrence). These are the most recent events in a continuing sequence of earthquakes that have occurred in this area over the last three years. RRC staff has determined that injection into deep geologic strata — below the base of the Wolfcamp Formation and especially the Devonian, Silurian, and Ellenburger Formations — is likely contributing to recent seismic activity in the Northern-Culberson Reeves Seismic Response Area (NCR SRA). In response to continued seismicity within the NCR SRA, RRC is suspending all disposal well permits that inject oil and gas waste into deep strata within the boundaries of the NCR SRA. This action applies to 23 deep disposal wells. The permit suspension is effective on January 12, 2024. COMMENT: THESE ARE VERY DRASTIC ACTIONS, BUT THEY FAILED TO PREVENT AN M5.0 EARTHQUAKE THAT OCCURRED IN THIS AREA ABOUT 12 MONTHS LATER—ON FEBRUARY 14, 2025.

Ruptured pipeline          

There was damage caused by the M5 earthquake on February 14, 2025. A gas pipeline burst that very evening. Emergency teams extinguished a fire connected to the rupture by next morning.

But this isn’t the first gas pipeline rupture. The first was 19 months ago, and the second was 7 months ago. These two were only 300 yards apart, and in the North Culberson SRA (Figure 2). The second of these ruptures was July 15, 2024. Although not connected to any M5 earthquake, a Facebook video showed what looks like a fault line in the ground nearby.

Are Better Regulations Needed For Drilling Oversight

These pipeline failures, and the inability of the RRC restrictions to stop M5 earthquakes, are troubling at the least.  And at the worst, earthquakes might get up to M6 as they almost did in Oklahoma, and become a significant threat to the population.   

Attitudes about this threat do vary. Production of oil and gas in the Permian basin continues to increase in drill baby drill mode, raising the potential of earthquakes induced by wastewater disposal. On one hand, threat of an M6 quake can’t be ignored, nor can its damage to gas or oil pipelines, or to buildings even though West Texas is sparsely settled in general. The proposed Holtec nuclear waste site in New Mexico, not far from Carlsbad, would be surrounded by hundreds of oil and gas wells, and might not be immune from earthquake damage. However, an Appeals court has in March 2024 vacated the NRC license provided to Holtec.

On the other hand, the oil and gas industry argues that regulations should balance damage against economics and profit. Any restrictions on drilling or disposal actions could have serious economic effects. This argument is weakened by the lucrative nature of the Permian industry, where in 1921 the average oil and gas revenue at the wellhead was $24 billion per year—assuredly an underestimate of the situation in 2025.

An experience in the UK reveals a different place and different attitudes. In 2019, a company called Cuadrilla, which was completing a shale-type well in Lancashire, was banned by the government from all wellsite activities because an earthquake of magnitude 2.9 was detected. Such a quake was deemed unpleasant or unsafe to local inhabitants who were densely settled in the area, in contrast to sparsely settled people living in the Permian basin of west Texas.